Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 37.961138 41.383210 45.189118 49.780739 55.232894 61.583558 69.669984
2025-07-27 34.371609 39.136924 44.872506 52.464927 62.555302 76.011446 96.344106
2025-08-03 31.762351 37.152313 43.974390 53.590326 67.463290 88.076442 124.445744
2025-08-10 29.568618 35.253593 42.716135 53.746361 70.738495 98.450196 155.235800
2025-08-17 27.318151 32.979981 40.593976 52.219573 70.986307 103.828137 180.125044
2025-08-24 25.460944 31.038547 38.683348 50.665149 70.773015 108.192593 206.184998
2025-08-31 24.949583 30.868103 39.220750 52.862536 77.258276 127.778527 295.514496
2025-09-07 23.586010 29.385888 37.686282 51.518809 77.065336 133.100177 348.664407
2025-09-14 22.444909 28.140635 36.395727 50.409854 77.086920 138.990478 418.908133
2025-09-21 21.096427 26.518768 34.418981 47.935111 73.997732 135.986542 438.865342
2025-09-28 20.374531 25.769660 33.729115 47.603197 75.211995 145.097110 569.724396
2025-10-05 20.465991 26.214291 34.916943 50.697093 84.343519 183.017922 1422.079346
2025-10-12 19.482534 25.129489 33.803095 49.889442 85.627108 200.957402 3589.067141
2025-10-19 19.198896 25.107318 34.447887 52.589958 96.606598 275.543500 NaN
2025-10-26 18.669063 24.653491 34.311432 53.719874 104.161781 357.648622 NaN
2025-11-02 18.041673 23.996219 33.754117 53.876558 109.105917 446.556916 NaN
2025-11-09 17.227400 22.988726 32.496995 52.343499 108.268652 488.002427 NaN
2025-11-16 16.480453 22.050277 31.295119 50.782823 106.907213 525.606081 NaN
2025-11-23 16.313086 22.040019 31.748833 52.989087 119.617500 899.175110 NaN
2025-11-30 15.696016 21.255455 30.728121 51.639900 118.671473 1023.293879 NaN
2025-12-07 15.153577 20.570312 29.848618 50.526514 118.354385 1204.703218 NaN
2025-12-14 14.475088 19.633040 28.452053 48.042135 111.789685 1071.458994 NaN
2025-12-21 14.103413 19.194149 27.963578 47.708954 114.143495 1437.539827 NaN